My FutureSEPA · MINERVINI STOCK DESK · v4.34.67

Trend Template Stage 2 gate

1. Price above the 150-day and 200-day MA
2. 150-day MA above the 200-day MA
3. 200-day MA rising for at least 1 month, ideally 4–5
4. 50-day MA above the 150-day and 200-day
5. Price at least 25% above the 52-week low (best: 100–300%)
6. Price within 25% of the 52-week high — closer is better
7. RS rating ≥ 70, preferably 90+; RS line rising 6 weeks, ideally 13+
8. Price above the 50-day MA (exception: Low Cheat)

Stage analysis

• Stage 1 Neglect — sideways, 200DMA flat
• Stage 2 Advancing — accumulation. Only stage to buy. 98% of big winners started their move in Stage 2
• Stage 3 Topping — wider, looser swings; the largest daily/weekly drop of the advance on heavy volume; usually after 3–5 bases
• Stage 4 Declining — capitulation; below falling 200DMA
• Transition 1→2: higher highs and higher lows, 200DMA turns up, big up-weeks on volume, quiet pullbacks

Fundamentals Earnings · Sales · Margins

• EPS up 20%+ in the last 2–3 quarters — the bigger the better
• Sales rising in the last 2–3 quarters (winners averaged +33% latest quarter)
• Sequential acceleration in EPS and sales; smooth with a 2-quarter average
• Current growth faster than the 3–5 year rate; look for a “breakout year”
• Margins expanding. Code 33: EPS, sales and margins all accelerating for 3 quarters
• ROE ≥ 17% versus peers
• Warnings: material EPS deceleration, eroding margins, EPS up with sales down, low tax/one-off gains

Is the result really great?

1. Beats consensus, ideally above the highest estimate
2. Company raises guidance meaningfully
3. Stock reacts well and resists profit-taking for days or weeks
4. Analysts raise estimates (>5% in 30 days matters)
5. Revenue beats and grows
6. Quality earnings from sales, not one-time gains
7. Never trust the story or the numbers unless price confirms

VCP — volatility contraction

• 2–6 contractions (“T”), each roughly half the prior: e.g. 31% → 17% → 8% → 3%
• Volume dries up into the right side; tight closes near the pivot
• Base length 3–65 weeks; correction usually 10–35%, up to 60% in a bear market
• Pivot = high of the final, tightest contraction. Buy on a volume expansion through it
• Allow right-side development; avoid wide, loose bases and V-shaped wedging into overhead supply

Setups & time frames

• Cup Completion Cheat & Low Cheat — 6–52 weeks
• Cup with handle — 7–65 weeks
• Double bottom — 7–65 weeks
• Darvas box — 4–6 weeks
• Power Play: +100% in < 8 weeks on huge volume, then a 3–6 week flag correcting no more than 20–25%
• Primary base after IPO; failure (pivot) reset; bottom-fishing pivot only with care

After the buy

Confirmations

• Follow-through buying for 2–3+ days; more up days and good closes
• Tennis-ball action: quick, powerful recovery after a natural reaction
• Bullish breakout: +20%, up 12 of 15 days, elevated volume

Violations

• Low volume out, high volume back into the base
• 3–4 consecutive lower lows on volume
• Close below the 20-day soon after the breakout, worse below the 50-day
• Full retracement of the breakout; wide, volatile action; stairs up, elevator down

Risk & position sizing

• Max stop 8% (staggered 10–12% only as an “uncle point”); average loss 5–6%
• Risk 1.00–1.50% of equity per trade, 2.5% max
• Optimal position 20–25%; never more than 50% in one stock
• 4–5 big positions; 8–16 stocks max including partials
• Start with pilot buys; let profits finance larger positions. Scale up when trading well, down when trading poorly
• In tough markets cut stops to 4–5%, get off margin, take smaller profits
• Never average down

Selling

Into strength

• At a multiple of risk (2–3R) and above your average gain: sell half, stop to breakeven
• Extended and gaps up: sell at least half or trail tight
• 50-day rule: once well up, the 50-day MA becomes the trailing stop

Into weakness

• Stop hit — out, no questions
• Below 20DMA and purchase price soon after breakout — reduce
• Heavy selling with full retracement after a low-volume breakout — sell
• Key reversal on heavy volume while extended — sell at least half
• Never let a good-size gain turn into a loss

Topping signals

1. Parabolic advance: +25–50% in 1–3 weeks
2. Largest up day since the move began
3. Largest daily and weekly price spread
4. 6–10 days up with only 2–3 down
5. Exhaustion gaps when extended
6. New high on low volume from a late-stage (4th–6th) base
7. Heavy volume, little progress (churning)
8. Break of 50DMA on the heaviest volume of the move
9. Largest one-day and weekly decline on huge volume

The “95% Club” — big winners

• 99% above the 200DMA, 96% above the 50DMA
• 95% showed earnings acceleration and had a catalyst
• 96% began off a correction or consolidation
• 80% were IPOs within 10 years; small floats
• Average RS 90; EPS latest quarter +60%, current year +36%

During a market correction

• Build the watch list while the market is down
• Stocks hitting 52-week highs as the index makes lows
• Stocks that corrected least — within 25% of highs
• Biggest percentage movers off the market low
• Buy the ones that emerge first from sound bases
• Daily routine: sort into buyable now / near pivot / watch; set pivot and stop alerts pre-market